HomeSportsFantasy Football Week 12 lineup decisions: Starts, Sits, Sleepers, Busts to know for every game this weekend
Fantasy Football Week 12 lineup decisions: Starts, Sits, Sleepers, Busts to know for every game this weekend
November 23, 2022
Dave is on the move this week and spending time with the family so I’m here to take the lead on what I consider the bible for weekly Fantasy Football decisions. The good news for those already missing Dave’s expertise is that you can find his plays for the Thanksgiving slate here. You’ll also get a bonus play for the Titans-Bengals game below. Otherwise, I’ll do my best to find you the right sleepers, busts, FLEX plays and more.
Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
It’s too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every Thanksgiving day game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Justin Jefferson). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
LAST GAME: Wilson totaled a 61% snap share on route to 52% of the team’s attempts. and led the way in attempts (52%) and route participation (53%).
MORE USAGE: Wilson racked up 17 rushing attempts and five targets while operating as the team’s short-yardage back.
TEXANS: Houston has allowed at least 90 yards or more to a running back in each of its past eight games. They have also allowed eight rushing touchdowns to running backs in their last five games. They have allowed the most Fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season.
LAST WEEK: Saw a target share north of 17% for only the second time this season, wielding eight targets into a 7-111-0 stat line (his first outing with more than 55 yards). It’s worth noting that 94 yards came on his first and last receptions, both deep targets, which means 17 yards were earned over his other five grabs.
LAST WEEK: Burks was also noticeably absent on a lot of the Titans’ red-zone snaps. Of Ryan Tannehill’s 10 dropbacks inside the 20, Burks played four snaps. He did get a target and may have scored on the play had Tannehill thrown sooner. Burks also drew a double-team in the end-zone in the second half.
FILM: While he didn’t quickly accelerate into top gear, Burks did show he can outrun the competition on those two aforementioned targets. Whether or not the Titans keep giving him those deep opportunities from game to game remains to be seen, but the short-area targets he saw were very similar to what he did at Arkansas, and that figures to be a staple in the Titans offense. It should set Burks up for an eight-point PPR floor moving forward.
BENGALS: Are among the league leaders in catch rate allowed to wideouts (59% on the season) and they don’t miss many tackles (five in 2022). However, they’re slipping in terms of yards per catch (14.02 this season and 17.32 in their past three) and touchdowns (half of the six touchdowns have come in their past three) to WRs. It stems from Cincinnati becoming worse at defending throws of 16-plus Air Yards, especially in its past three games (bottom-five in catch rate, completions of 20-plus yards and overall receiving yards allowed).
TITANS: Nearly 25% of their pass attempts of 16-plus yards this season (10 of 42) have come over their past two games and they’ve averaged a league-best 40.8 yards per catch on them. They’re trying to get better at those throws, and Burks was the primary benefactor last week.
CHARGERS: Los Angeles presents an excellent matchup for Conner having allowed the third-most Fantasy points to opposing running backs and at least 10 points in non-PPR scoring in eight of their last nine games
USAGE: Despite the hyper-negative game script in Week 11, Conner finished with a 78% snap rate — good for the fourth-highest among all running backs.